Before we go any further, I want to put something into perspective. In the last two months of the 2008 campaign, I made a map of state projections for the Presidential Election. I missed only two. To complete the map, I looked at a number of things-- fundraising, state history, state party affiliations, etc.-- but I put some more weight in the polls than anything else. Some will tell you the old axiom of politics, that the only poll that matters is the General Election.
Honestly, though, that is garbage. Don't believe it.
Sure, there are times when the polls fail us. Usually, it is when the difference is one or two points out of the margin of error, but there are times when it is a big swing of the numbers. When the numbers are close, you put more emphasis on the other factors. When the numbers are far a part, you still keep all factors in vision, but, unless there is a huge variable, the winner of the poll is going to win the election.
With that said, Creigh Deeds, the Democrat, my party's choice, is in deep trouble. Worse than that, actually. Deeds doesn't have a chance. Real Clear Politics (RCP) has the average of polls for the Virginia race at about 55% to 41%. Even the DailyKos, a Progressive blog much like the one you're reading now, is showing the race at a huge disadvantage to the Democrat Deeds, with a 10% difference being reported (54%-44%).
What could possibly make my projection wrong? A huge tidal wave of voters flocking to the polls. A Democratic base that is excited for this candidate. All in all, a very different situation we see now.
The Tidal Wave or a Tide
The Virginia Democrats can pray to whatever deity they choose, and perform as many rain dances as they feel fit, but the wave is not coming. According to recent reports, the turnout looks to be very much like most mid-term elections in Virginia- small. Filled with Conservatives. And filled with Republicans. What does it all spell for Creigh Deeds, the Democrat that supports a woman's reproductive rights along with her right to own an AK-47? A long career in the State Legislature.
Apathetic Democrats
I don't blame the local Democrats for not traveling to the polls. Deeds has failed miserably to give the donkeys in the Southern state something to be excited about. Why would anyone get excited about Senator Deeds? He is a Conservative Democrat going against an even more Conservative Republican in an historically red state. The Washington Post points out that only 75% of voters leaning for Deeds are excited or fairly excited about his candidacy, compared to over 90% of those voting for McDonnell. Here's why:
- Deeds is a big supporter of guns rights. So is McDonnell.
- Deeds is an even bigger supporter of the death penalty, even for minors and even for people who contributed to the killing of an individual but didn't actually kill the person. So is McDonnell.
- Deeds supports making English the official language of America and is a fool when it comes to immigration reform. So is McDonnell.
If McDonnell wins, Democrats don't face a problem. The DailyKos poll that showed McDonnell winning by a 10-point spread also illustrated that Virginians haven't lost this Progressive-resurgence we've been seeing. In the poll, Virginians were asked whether they supported or opposed a robust public option. Overwhelmingly, those polled in Virginia support it (50%-41%).
This race won't be an illustration of a Conservative resurgence. If anything, it is an example of a desire for more Progressive candidates in the South.
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